FX Views
EURUSD
Continued talk of higher rates for Europe keeps EUR bid after the intervention calmed investors fears of a financial melt down.
Major central banks intervened to sell JPY to the tune of 2 trillion by just the BoJ alone.
With this fear taken out, looks like risk is back on e table hence we see USDJPY, EURUSD and AUDUSD back where we started early last week.
EUR may probably see a test of 1.43 or higher if this continues.
AUDUSD
Should benefit from the improved risk appetite and a tech at 1,0150 cannot be ruled out this week or possibly 1.0250 even.
USDJPY
Look at the liquidity injection from intervention and the promise to pump more liquidity into the Japanese money markets as a Quantitative Easing for Japan and it should drag JPY lower just as it did the ISD since Aug 2010. Possibly see USDJPY test 83 or even higher in the coming weeks.
Showing posts with label margin trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label margin trading. Show all posts
Monday, 14 March 2011
EURUSD
Expectations of higher EUR rates keeping EUR bid despite the downgrading of Spain's rating.
EU summit was nonevent as expected as it does take quite a lot to get the rescue mechanism into place given that any agreement needs to be reformed into the Treaty.
Looks likely EurUsd to try 1.40 again this week. Medium term I am looking to reduce longs from here still. The sovereign debt issue has not gone away.
AUDUSD
Positively correlating to the EUR, AUD looks bid but efforts to attempt at 1.0250 is not convincing. Australia relies >10% of trade with Japan. This will take some off terms of trade for Australia. So I am getting a little nervous the longer AUDUSD doesn't clear 1.0250.
Then again if you are Asian based, your countries are also likely to be affected. So on balance probably not much movement there.
I am looking to reduce my longs over the next couple of weeks unless the clear break of 1.0250 is convincing.
USDJPY
Market started off buying JPY on Friday but quickly reversed. Boj pumping lots of liquidity to shore up the economy to keep it going. Japanese sovereign debt is likely to grow past it's current 200% and in the long term doesn't make it look awfully attractive.
I am looking to probably buy on dips to 81 area.
Expectations of higher EUR rates keeping EUR bid despite the downgrading of Spain's rating.
EU summit was nonevent as expected as it does take quite a lot to get the rescue mechanism into place given that any agreement needs to be reformed into the Treaty.
Looks likely EurUsd to try 1.40 again this week. Medium term I am looking to reduce longs from here still. The sovereign debt issue has not gone away.
AUDUSD
Positively correlating to the EUR, AUD looks bid but efforts to attempt at 1.0250 is not convincing. Australia relies >10% of trade with Japan. This will take some off terms of trade for Australia. So I am getting a little nervous the longer AUDUSD doesn't clear 1.0250.
Then again if you are Asian based, your countries are also likely to be affected. So on balance probably not much movement there.
I am looking to reduce my longs over the next couple of weeks unless the clear break of 1.0250 is convincing.
USDJPY
Market started off buying JPY on Friday but quickly reversed. Boj pumping lots of liquidity to shore up the economy to keep it going. Japanese sovereign debt is likely to grow past it's current 200% and in the long term doesn't make it look awfully attractive.
I am looking to probably buy on dips to 81 area.
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