FX Views 27 June 2011
EUR
All hinging on Greece outcome on their acceptance elf further austerity measures in order to secure the needed funding from IMF/ECB mid-July. If this fails, as it can happen as 75% in Greece oppose them, the EUR could see a quick fall through 1.40. On the side but close, is a French suggestion to rollover 70% of the debt and that is likely to trigger a credit event, sending the EUR down quickly. China has again come out, as it did last year, to support Europe and the EUR. This will likely limit the fall. Don't forget the US is not out of their own messy debt problem too.
1.35 if a default gets triggered, otherwise back to 1.45

AUDUSD
Following risk appetite. Possibly fall to 1.02-1.00 on account of bad news from Greece.possibly more if markets feel it's more severe then expected. Medium term still a buy with good fundamentals. Delayed hike in OZ might allow more weakness initially if risk appetite falls away quickly.
GBOUSd
Weak weak weak. Likely to remain below 1.60. No interest rates now from comments from their MPC. GBP might benefit if EUR takes a tumble. Short EurGbp cross.
USDJPY
Safe haven buying JPY could test 79.50 but question is will BOJ intervention again. Was successful last two rounds.