Monday, 25 July 2011

FX views 25th July

What a confusing week. With the Greek bail out mostly out of the way, focus is now back on the USA. Will they default? Many analyst don't think so but no one is betting thier house on this not happening. I hear many hedge funds are long Cash rather then heavily invested and e markets still looks thin. EurUsd Well, many now believe it's going up. Staying above 1.43 helps slot. Target 1.50? I don't know really. Will there be a dead cat bounce for the Usd? Are we save fro the other PIIGS countries? cDS spreads have narrowed for sure and we have just stepped away from the Bungee board, for now. A Euro rate hike may still be in the works but I d prefer to wait and see first. Not convinced. AUD Feeling bearish with data, CPI tomorrow. Weak number could see AUD fall below 1.08 , probably low side of 1.07. Good support still at 1.0650. Medium term still attractive yields but not clear. JPY Will e BoJ intervenes? Don't know. But they've come out to gesture. Buy calls on Usd? Must go check the prices.