EURUSD European finance ministers have a big task ahead when they meet. Greece is tittering on being fully bankrupt. They need another Eur60 Billion to tie them over for 2012 & 2013. A few scenarios can pan out: 1) EFSF supports the full EUR 60 billion. This would be the best outcome and EUR should recover from here. 2) European government sled the Eur60billion and take a "haircut loss" sparing private lenders. EUR likely to fall then recover. 3) European governments lend full/part and both European agencies and private lenders, many are European banks take a "hair cut" loss. This is the worse scenario. EUR should fall quickly past 1.30. AudUsd Risk off climate caused AUD to briefly touch 1.10 to fall to support at 1.0550 today. Softer commodities, oil, gold prices taking it's toll. Market is long. I would sell rallies to 1.07 area. EUR will lead still. UsdJpy US still looking weak and keeps a lid on UsdJpy which is sitting just above 80. A slow drift south unlikely to trigger intervention but I would ink nit too far below or else BoJ likely to again seek international help to intervene. Still trading in a wide range 80-85.
